Enhancing Quality and Expanding Capacity:

Strategic Priorities for Higher Education During the “15th Five-Year Plan” Period

By Li Liguo

Guangming Daily (Page 15,January 6, 2026 )

【Building an Education Power · Education Commentary】

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the Recommendations of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (hereinafter referred to as the Recommendations), which proposed to “promote the enhancement of quality and expansion of capacity in higher education and expand enrollment in high-quality undergraduate education.” The Outline of the Plan for Building an Education Power (2024–2035) (hereinafter referred to as the Outline) also proposes to orderly expand enrollment in high-quality undergraduate education. Enhancing quality and expanding capacity constitutes one of the strategic priorities for the development of higher education during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. It represents a concrete manifestation of “investing in people” to “build abundant advantages in human resources,” and embodies the essential requirement of serving economic and social development and Chinese modernization through the high-quality development of higher education.

Enhancing Quality and Expanding Capacity Is an Inevitable Requirement for Higher Education During the “15th Five-Year Plan” Period

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC emphasized that the theme of the next five years is to promote high-quality development. The most important aspect of promoting high-quality development is accelerating high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening. From seizing the commanding heights of science and technology, to developing new quality productive forces, and further to advancing high-quality development, those who can cultivate and attract more outstanding talents will gain the upper hand in competition. In building China into an education power, higher education serves as the leading force. Globally, every education power is also a higher education power.

Higher education is the convergence point of integrated development in education, science and technology, and talent cultivation. It is a crucial linkage connecting science and technology as the primary productive force, talent as the primary resource, and innovation as the primary driving force. Higher education plays an important and unique role in building China into an education power, a science and technology power, and a talent power.

At present, China has established the world’s largest higher education system in terms of scale. However, compared with national strategic needs, economic and social development demands, and the public’s expectations for high-quality higher education, there remains substantial room for enhancing quality and expanding capacity. A certain gap still exists when compared with higher education systems in developed countries. In particular, during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the population of higher education–age cohorts in China will continue to grow, and the peak of enrollment has yet to arrive.

In response to national strategic needs during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s higher education must continue to expand. However, this expansion must not be a simple increase in quantity or an extensive expansion in scale. Its core lies in using quality enhancement and capacity expansion as an opportunity to promote and realize the connotative development of higher education, achieving coordinated advancement of both quality and scale. This requires a deep understanding of the intrinsic logic of integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent. While orderly expanding the coverage of high-quality educational resources, greater efforts must be made to optimize disciplinary and program structures, deepen innovation in talent cultivation models, strengthen the training of top innovative talents, and effectively transform the “strength of education” into a powerful driving force for “national strength.” This will provide robust talent and intellectual support for the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country.

Enhancing Quality and Expanding Capacity as a Strategic Manifestation of “Investing in People” During the “15th Five-Year Plan” Period

The “15th Five-Year Plan” period occupies a pivotal position in China’s process of basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a critical stage in advancing toward the level of moderately developed countries. China’s economic development model is undergoing a profound transformation from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, making the improvement of total factor productivity a key priority. The effective supply of high-quality talent and labor has become the focal point.

It is particularly important to note that although the population of higher education–age cohorts will continue to increase during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China will face significant challenges of declining birth rates and population aging in the future. In the face of profound changes in population structure, how to transform demographic dividends into talent dividends has become a major concern of society.

Responding to the impacts of technological revolutions and demographic changes requires a shift from “investing in things” to “investing in people,” accelerating efforts to “strengthen the nation through quality.” By enhancing quality and expanding capacity, China can broaden access to high-quality higher education resources, effectively upgrade and fully utilize its human resources, and offset the impact of population aging through improvements in educational attainment and health levels.

During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period and beyond, quality enhancement and capacity expansion should serve as a key lever to accelerate the establishment of a high-quality education system, promote the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent, and effectively accumulate talent dividends. This will help build abundant advantages in human resources, provide sustained and high-quality talent supply for sound economic development and comprehensive social progress, and better serve the advancement of Chinese modernization.

Enhancing Quality and Expanding Capacity Must Be Integrated with the Optimization of Talent Cultivation Structures

China’s higher education talent cultivation structure exhibits a pronounced “pyramid-shaped” pattern, characterized by a relatively high proportion of vocational and junior college education, and a relatively low proportion of graduate education and “Double First-Class” universities. As of 2024, enrollment in higher vocational and junior college programs accounted for over 50% of total higher education enrollment, exceeding undergraduate enrollment. The total number of students enrolled in higher education across all forms reached 48.46 million, among whom graduate students numbered 4.0954 million, accounting for less than 10% of total enrollment.

In contrast, in developed countries, graduate education typically accounts for more than 20% of higher education enrollment, undergraduate education exceeds 60%, and junior college education accounts for approximately 20%–30%. Moreover, China has only 147 “Double First-Class” universities, whose undergraduate enrollment accounts for less than 6% of total college entrance examination admissions. These data indicate that while “getting into college” is no longer difficult, the challenge of “getting into a good college” remains acute.

In recent years, enrollment in high-quality higher education institutions, represented by “Double First-Class” universities, has continued to increase. However, significant gaps remain when compared with the public’s strong desire—particularly among college entrance examination candidates and their families—for access to high-quality education, as well as with the demands of economic and social development and scientific and technological progress, and with the development level of higher education in developed countries.

During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, in the face of enrollment peaks among higher education–age cohorts and the demands of technological revolutions and industrial upgrading, China must adjust and optimize its higher education talent cultivation structure, transforming it from the current “pyramid-shaped” structure into an “olive-shaped” structure. The Recommendations propose to further advance the construction of “Double First-Class” universities. The Outline states that it is necessary to “orderly expand enrollment in high-quality undergraduate education, expand the scale of graduate education, steadily increase the proportion of doctoral students, and vigorously develop professional degree graduate education.”

During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, by accelerating the construction of “Double First-Class” universities, expanding their enrollment, increasing high-quality undergraduate enrollment, actively developing graduate education, and promoting vocational undergraduate education, China can optimize the talent cultivation structure, achieve quality enhancement and capacity expansion, and build a high-quality education system.

Enhancing Quality and Expanding Capacity Must Be Integrated with Adjustments to Disciplinary and Program Structures

The Recommendations propose to coordinate and optimize disciplinary arrangements. At present, China’s disciplinary and program structures in higher education cannot fully meet the needs of national strategies, economic and social development, scientific and technological progress, and industrial upgrading. In the process of enhancing quality and expanding capacity, it is necessary to optimize mechanisms for disciplinary and program adjustment, establish sound adjustment mechanisms driven by scientific and technological development and national strategic needs, and improve talent cultivation models, thereby continuously enhancing the support and contribution of higher education to high-quality development.

Enhancing quality and expanding capacity does not mean indiscriminately expanding all disciplines and programs. Rather, expansion should focus on disciplines and programs aligned with national strategies, scientific and technological progress, and economic and social development needs; on disciplines in which universities possess institutional strengths and distinctive characteristics; and on disciplines required by future industries and strategic emerging industries. Quality enhancement must accompany expansion.

In this process, it is essential to properly balance relationships between basic and applied disciplines; traditional disciplines and emerging and interdisciplinary fields; frontier disciplines, advantaged disciplines and relatively weak disciplines; urgently needed disciplines and general disciplines. It is also necessary to balance long-standing strengths and weaknesses, existing capacity and incremental growth, and current needs and future development. For disciplines and programs with insufficient social demand, declining training quality, or inadequate institutional conditions, early warnings should be issued and rectification requirements proposed. Priority should be given to developing disciplines required by national strategies, with a focus on strategic emerging industries and future industries, and rapidly establishing a number of new disciplinary and program bases.

Efforts should be made to implement incubation initiatives for emerging and interdisciplinary fields, and to establish a number of exemplary interdisciplinary centers. Universities should be granted an appropriate degree of autonomy in disciplinary development, and supported in independently establishing emerging and interdisciplinary disciplines based on economic and industrial needs, strengthening the responsiveness and linkage between disciplines and regional industrial and socioeconomic development. Through quality enhancement and capacity expansion, disciplinary and program optimization should be realized, fostering the development of advantaged and distinctive disciplines aligned with national strategies and socioeconomic needs, promoting differentiated and distinctive development, and improving institutional quality and standards.

Enhancing Quality and Expanding Capacity Must Be Integrated with the Optimization of Higher Education Layout

China’s vast territory and large population make the scientific layout of higher education particularly important. The Recommendations propose to optimize the layout of higher education institutions. This involves optimizing the relationships between centrally affiliated and local universities, “Double First-Class” and non–“Double First-Class” institutions, universities in eastern, central and western regions, and institutions of different types, including research-oriented, application-oriented and skills-oriented universities. Through quality enhancement and capacity expansion, coordinated development among various types of institutions can be achieved, thereby building a high-quality higher education system.

Currently, universities affiliated with central ministries account for less than 5% of all higher education institutions, while local universities account for approximately 95%. Centrally affiliated universities generally have higher educational standards, with most being “Double First-Class” institutions. Regional disparities persist, with higher education in eastern China developing more rapidly than in central and western regions.

Enhancing quality and expanding capacity in higher education must balance equity and efficiency. On the one hand, it is necessary to develop existing high-quality higher education resources, independently and scientifically determine evaluation standards for “Double First-Class” construction, and promote the classified development of universities, encouraging institutions to strive for excellence in different fields. Research-oriented universities should focus on global scientific frontiers and major national and regional strategic needs, cultivating theoretical and innovative talents. Application-oriented universities should focus on regional economic development and industrial transformation and upgrading, cultivating applied talents needed by regional industries and society. Skills-oriented universities should focus on local industrial and social needs, cultivating skilled, operational and position-oriented talents.

On the other hand, high-quality higher education resources should be tilted toward universities in central and western regions and toward local universities, improving their overall quality and institutional capacity, and enhancing their ability to serve national strategies and regional economic and social development.